Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.769498 20.584700 23.635350 27.178429 31.171516 35.523639 40.616926
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 13.575349 17.523880 22.200984 28.109628 35.331097 43.823437 54.515345
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 10.405877 14.784951 20.391216 27.999742 37.947369 50.391276 66.997073
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 8.775605 13.536187 20.044515 29.416892 42.359511 59.366640 83.120717
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 7.326286 12.188430 19.244702 29.959007 45.482864 66.768854 97.679199
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 6.109929 10.914619 18.285933 30.034757 47.810950 73.125725 111.166075
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.161990 9.861091 17.453779 30.106689 50.016813 79.347630 124.779323
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 4.793784 9.687587 17.942443 32.210238 55.386169 90.467779 146.131543
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.343418 9.281697 17.971765 33.534623 59.599044 100.088085 165.813132
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.942558 8.890459 17.956294 34.745079 63.677119 109.711618 186.021455
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.428595 8.185106 17.278091 34.713547 65.655923 116.108854 201.538947
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.884265 7.313622 16.166077 33.763129 65.946975 119.745625 212.815374
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.413530 6.521438 15.120965 32.861813 66.320328 123.673629 225.051819
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.123572 6.079951 14.715849 33.131283 68.816187 131.347274 243.967018
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.814839 5.527565 13.997963 32.696685 69.962253 136.757621 259.381120
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.695610 5.423539 14.228605 34.195375 74.857081 149.010901 287.136872
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.525002 5.146963 14.030338 34.766241 77.980843 158.251498 310.087555
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.344635 4.802176 13.622191 34.834754 80.100871 165.768858 330.356233
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.188162 4.488649 13.240088 34.909826 82.221196 173.382536 351.149303
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.165358 4.575213 13.857291 37.296369 89.259817 190.589125 390.142444
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.099434 4.511784 14.083558 38.798093 94.542930 204.714944 424.090818
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.032409 4.429835 14.249644 40.170271 99.638411 218.726905 458.429789
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.916006 4.151032 13.848094 40.134371 101.681877 226.882789 482.135696